ECB Tells Irish To Go F**k Themselves

The story so far: a corrupt Irish political system bailed out a corrupt bank, on orders from the ECB, to avoid the implosion of mainland European banks. Also a corrupt Irish political system, on orders from the ECB, bailed out the financial gambling losses of well-heeled investors.

And so comes an opportunity for the ECB to recognise that the Irish helped save Europe. An opportunity to ease the terms and timescale of Irish repayments of the newly-printed ECB money which was used to benefit banks and investors. (By the way, the Irish people never actually got the money - it was "exported" as quickly as it was printed by the Irish Central Bank under EU auspices.)

In recent weeks, Irish politicians have waxed lyrical about their ongoing negotiations with the ECB over the loan notes repayment schedule - especially one note for €3.1Billion, due for payment on 2 April 2012. Quiet confidence in the outcome of those informal talks was reinforced by finance minister, Michael Noonan who intimated the ECB would accept pushing back that note payment and similarly rescheduling all subsequent notes (totalling over €30Billion).

In the last few days a "mission accomplished" outcome was flagged by Irish government sources. Then on the eve of Noonan's Fine Gael party annual shindig, the Finance Minister rolled out to announce victory. Ireland would not be paying the loan note and so would not need to borrow to fund that payment. Furthermore this success augured well for rescheduling the balance of the outstanding notes.

It was a giant lie. It wasn't just gilding the Lilly, it was calling a dog turd a Lilly. Don't take my word for that, take the ECB's word. The ECB issued a statement welcoming the note payment and looking forward to further on schedule payments - while reminding Ireland that it had aided Irish banks greatly. So there.

In fact, Ireland will be making the note payment as scheduled. In fact, that ghastly reality augurs poorly for the remaining notes.

SMOKE AND WHEELBARROWS

So where did Ireland get the money to make the €3.1Billion note payment? They borrowed it from Bank of Ireland - using NAMA as an intermediary.  And where did Bank of Ireland get the money - considering they are a totally bust bank who won't even loan €310 to small business, let alone €3.1Billion to the Irish government? Answer: they 'magicked' the €3.1Billion into existence using the rules of fractional reserve banking.

The Irish government created a bond. NAMA handed the bond to Bank of Ireland - who stashed the bond in the vault and... Hey Presto! €3.1Billion comes into existence as a loan against the bond.  And the government hands the new cash to the Irish Central Bank - who are the local agent for the ECB.

What do the Irish Central Bank do with the €3.1Billion? They take it out the back yard and burn it in a wheelbarrow. Really. Remember, the money was first printed by the Irish Central Bank under EU auspices. Now it is to be destroyed to (ahem) 'balance' the books.

FUNNY MONEY

If you are starting to feel concerned about the ease with which money is "magicked" in and out of existence; and if you are getting a headache trying to follow this smoke and mirrors game, then let's cut to the chase.

The broke Irish government only now just borrowed the €3.1Billion which years ago was used to pay off well-connected Anglo Irish bondholders. The new loan fees and interest will reward well-connected bankers and financial engineers. The bill is yet more debt the public will be looted to pay.

There are now no ECB negotiations. The ECB wants €3.1Billion EVERY year to burn in the wheelbarrow. The ECB has told the Irish government that if they don't like it, then they can go f**k themselves.

Lacking any testicles, and acting as an intermediary while lying through their teeth, the Irish government has told the Irish people to destroy their country so that money can be burned in wheelbarrows. And if THEY don't like it, then THEY too can go f**k themselves.

Did I mention the upcoming Fiscal Treaty vote? How about the Irish send these political and financial bwankers a message?  One like this: NO.

And if they don't like that they can go f**k..........

Occupy Dame Street Flaws Enabled Police Raid

A report on the ODS march to Pearse Street Garda station by Andrew Flood for the Worker's Solidarity Movement (WSM) website, shows that both the Gardai and the protesters were disorganised and lacking in coherent strategy.

The analysis of the march and it's context ridicules the shambolic Garda tactic of trying to block the wide roadway at Pearse Street:

"[The] now solid line of 30-40 police only reached across 1/3 of the way across the wide footpath and multi-lane road. A number of people simply walked around the end of that line and started to protest at the police station doors."

The WSM article is also critical of a democratic deficit in Occupy Dame Street:

"There haven't been regular General Assemblies at Dame Street since the start of December and quite a few of the ones before that were quite dysfunctional as decision making spaces due to people not following or abusing procedure.

With everyone so wound up there was little real discussion at last nights assembly, more a string of angry speeches and very rapid 'proposal' and 'consensus' without real discussion. The decisions to re-occupy the Plaza and to march on Pearse street police station was made more by acclaim than consensus..."

Those are points well made. The 'decision' to march on the Garda station came after a rabble-rousing address by Steven Bennett. His was a speech more reminiscent of a call to a mob - than a proposal at a mature GA discussion.

That's par for the course. As the WSM article implies, a small group now run the camp by internal edicts which are rubber-stamped by captive GA's. ODS has a leader. The occupy democratic philosophy and its leaderless structure have long been abandoned.

In fact, it was the collapse of the occupy democratic structure which enabled the removal of the camp.

The small ODS core --thinking they alone were "Occupy"--  became increasingly inwardly-focused and lost touch with the huge base of support which the Irish occupy movement enjoys.

Isolated by their own narrow design, they were then unable to mobilise sufficient number to make closing down the camp impractical for the Garda. They'd lost touch. No celebrities showed up to offer support before the raid. No coherent media defence was aired by ODS before the raid. The outcome was predictable.

The Occupy movement should discuss a national level response to these developments. Other occupy camps have prospered after removal of their first camp. Many have used a new focus to grow deep connections with their local political community and continue their campaign.

Maybe the Irish occupy movement needed a reboot.

Quiet Irish-EU Deal Sabotaged Ireland's Referendum Vote

Vincent Browne, journalist

The Irish Government has voluntarily tied the Irish people's hands by willingly creating a huge downside risk to a "No" referendum outcome.

A treaty modification signed in virtual secrecy, means that if the Irish vote "No" to the Fiscal Compact, they will have no right to EU assistance. That right has already been quietly signed away.

A few days ago, Irish journalist and presenter, Vincent Browns wrote to remind us that in early February, 2012, the Irish Government modified its EU debt treaties in a way "very menacing" to Irish interests. Brown writes:

No announcement was made of the signing of this modified treaty, no press release was issued. [ ] The Irish negotiators made no objection to the insertion of this new clause in the ESM treaty.

So, what was this treaty modification which the Government signed?

It amended EU debt treaties so that Ireland is prevented from getting EU financial assistance --unless-- the upcoming Irish referendum on EU debt levels is passed.

The Irish Government has voluntarily tied the Irish people's hands by willingly creating a huge downside risk to a "No" referendum outcome.

Blogger NamaWineLake has a detailed chronology and analysis on the affair, and comments:

Is it time to demand the Minister come to the Dail and make a statement justifying what now seems a bewilderingly stupid action, which has the potential to strand this country without feasible funding sources in 2014 unless this forthcoming referendum is passed?

Bewildering stupidity? Or cynical and calculating political shenanigans.

The Banishing Of The Irish Occupy

Irish police dismantled the 'Occupy Dame Street' protest camp at the Central Bank HQ in Dublin in the early hours of Thursday morning and arrested or evicted all protesters.

The move came after adverse media coverage of the refusal by protesters to remove the camp for the duration of the St. Patrick's festival - as requested by police a week earlier.

The true intent of the authorities will be revealed in whether the camp is allowed reestablish itself. But suspicion is high that the whole notion of the camp being an impediment to the upcoming festival was a pretext to remove it permanently. That's been the general policy of western governments captive of bankers.

Nevertheless, the outcome reflects poorly on the camp facilitators, who mishandled the PR side of presenting their case; were not vigorous in showing willingness to compromise; became disconnected from the broader Irish occupy support base, and failed to anticipate this well-signalled raid on the camp.

Whether all the above was mere disorganisation or sabotage, the end result is a big setback. Fortunately, you can't evict an idea. Occupy will have to learn and will continue.

The Occupy movement - and the issues we raise - will not, should not - be swept under the carpet to portray a fake "photo-op" version of Ireland to tourists or to the Irish public.

This is not "happy-clappy" Leprechaun-land. It's a nation under siege by bankers and stooges.

It's such a nation today. Despite the lack of tents in Dame Street.

Occupy Leo 'Leprechaun' Varadkar

Minister for Tourism Leo Varadkar has said it is “regrettable” that the Occupy camp in Dame Street will not consider relocating during the St Patrick’s Day celebrations.

What is actually "regrettable" is that Leo Varadkar tellingly failed to make the ODS camp a rightful part of the Festival celebrations.

We should be celebrating how the Irish Occupy movement of citizens against national impoverishment has been so predominantly peaceful and fully in line with constitutional rights of free expression.

We should be celebrating how the Irish Occupy movement of citizens against national impoverishment has been so predominantly peaceful and fully in line with constitutional rights of free expression. So Mr. Varadkar should have made the ODS camp a part of the Festival celebrations - rather than trying airbrush it from view.

The Occupy movement - and the issues we raise - will not, should not - be swept under the carpet to protray a fake "photo-op" version of Ireland.

We'll soon have enough clowns in leprechaun suits parading around Dublin already - without Leo (expensively-suited at taxpayer cost) adding to the mix.

Minister. On St. Patricks's Day - more than any other day in the year, we are ALL Irish.

Wherever we are in the world.

Even those citizens in a tent outside the Central Bank.

Goldman Sachs, BP, Enron, Iran Hype and the End of the 'Oil Printing' Scam

It appears that BP and Goldman Sachs have been literally 'printing oil'  for a decade using Enron-style commodity futures contracts, says Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange.

Their profit has come at the expense of other players in the oil trade: from market brokers to businesses and gas consumers. But the game is up, with only the hype over a potential war with Iran holding up a market primed to implode from falling demand.

How has this manipulation been achieved?

By means of prepay transactions: a form of financing, structured as a commodity trade, which can be made to look as if it is cash flow from operations. Investors prepay for physical oil. The producer lends oil to the investor, and the investor lends dollars to the producer. The temporary ownership rights created and sold to investors via intermediaries such as Goldman Sachs essentially enable a producer to act as a private oil bank ‘printing oil’.

How does printing oil affect the market?

In early 2009, risk averse money poured into the oil producers, allowing them demand higher prices from refiners, and thus driving forward contracts higher in a ‘super-contango’.

Traders began to buy oil, and to sell it forward, since the contango difference in price enabled them to pay to insure and finance the oil; to lease tank storage, and even to charter the fleets of tankers which sat as floating storage off the UK coast through spring and summer 2009. 

Passive investors, for their part, lose money in such a contango market, because the oil lease contracts are rolled over from month to month at a loss to them, since they would (say) sell June delivery oil contracts which they are in no position to perform, and have to buy July delivery oil contracts at a higher price. 

It is this continuing loss to long term fund investors which funds the ‘contango trade’ of the arbitrageur traders who charter the tankers.

And what does this imply for the direction of oil prices?

There have been two outflows of passive investment from the market, firstly in September 2011 when sentiment turned in favour of T-Bills as safe haven. The second was in December 2011, following the MF Global problem.

In each case we have seen the physical market go into backwardation, and in my view the record deliveries by the Saudis may be explained by an urgent desire to sell inventory returned to their ownership at high prices before the collapse they know is on the way. 

But the exit of passive investors from the market has yet to have the effect it did in late 2008 when the price collapsed to $35/barrel from the high of $147/barrel. The reason is that the current noise and rhetoric re Iran has firstly attracted refiners, who have purchased oil forward, and possibly even prepaid, because they fear prices will rise. 

This forced up the physical price of oil in the current ‘spike’ which will further kill off demand, while speculators have poured into the market to buy futures contracts, which producers have been only too happy to sell, in order to lock in high prices and insure against a collapse. 

It is only a matter of time before this spike ends as the market turns, and at this point there is literally nothing holding the market up.

Recession reality: oil demand is collapsing:

Falling demand for products in the US and EU has seen massive closures of refineries, to the extent that some 2m barrels per day of US East Coast refining capacity has closed. In a nutshell, demand in the West is dropping like a stone. In my view much of demand in the East (if not wishful thinking and hand waving by analysts) is financial, being the building of strategic reserves and refinery stocks as a physical hedge. 

It will be seen that the effect of Prepay on the oil market has been to create a parallel financial market in ‘paper oil’ which means that most participants are completely misled as to the true state of the market. 

If my analysis of the oil market is correct, many if not all prepay transactions have been terminated in recent months as passive investors have pulled out and the market has become free again of Dark Inventory. However the oil price has been kept inflated by a massive wave of speculative buying attracted by rhetoric and noise about Iran.

If he's right, it's likely the 'Big Boys' have used time bought by the Iran smokescreen to position themselves on the other side of the oil trade in anticipation of another oil price down spike. (Perhaps that was the whole idea of the media's Iran hysteria ;-)

Their timing may be tied to Greek debt insurance and a market realization that the global economy is floundering. Oil prices fell today after Iran agreed to let international nuclear inspectors into its facilities.

If oil crashes to $75 a barrel, the lower energy costs would give a shot in the arm to consumers and save the bacon of a banking system hooked on growth --however modest-- to keep kicking the financial can down the road.

All this would also enable QE'x' with lower inflation.

Who says markets are engineered?

Shocking Chart Of EU Youth Unemployment